Last checked 17 October 2026. Prices, prizes and what’s left are live.
Watch the ball fall through the pegs. The pocket it lands in is your prize.
Current competitions
See every current game, its prizes and its chances on competitions.
Which Plinko odds are we talking about?
The same game name appears on physical boards, browser games and different online prize formats. Their probabilities need not match. On Hoardsy, use the table for the exact competition you are considering, including its version, price, prize types and remaining counts. An odds chart copied from another website describes that other implementation.
Read three figures separately: the chance of the specific prize you want, the chance of any prize at all and the chance of finishing ahead of the paid entry cost. Those figures answer different questions. A table with frequent small prizes may have a much larger any-prize rate than its chance of returning more than the ticket price.
How to turn a prize row into a chance
A published weighted table assigns each prize a weight within a fixed denominator. Divide the row’s weight by that denominator to obtain its starting probability. To express it as “1 in”, divide the denominator by the weight. To express it as a percentage, divide the weight by the denominator and multiply by one hundred.
For a purely illustrative example, a weight of 25 in a denominator of 10,000 gives 25 ÷ 10,000 = 0.0025. That is 0.25%, or 1 in 400. These example numbers are teaching arithmetic, not a current Hoardsy offer. The catalogue table above supplies the actual rows when current records are available.
Rounded “1 in” figures are easier to read but may not reproduce the exact fraction. The underlying weight and denominator are the precise figures. A displayed percentage rounded to a few decimal places should not be used to infer that a tiny probability is exactly zero.
Any prize includes the small rows
Where a ticket receives one instant tier, add the starting probabilities of those mutually exclusive prize rows to calculate the published starting chance of any instant prize. The remainder is the starting chance of no instant prize. A separate end draw should not be inserted into this sum: it occurs later and uses a different selection.
Cash prizes below the ticket cost still count as prizes. Site credit can also be included in an any-award figure when it is a published tier, but it must remain labelled. Treating site credit as withdrawable cash would change the meaning of the figure and could make a comparison misleading.
If you want the chance of an instant cash amount larger than the price of one ticket, add only the cash rows above that price. Exclude credit and items from that particular calculation. Even this narrower measure does not say whether a whole session is ahead, because a session may contain many separately paid tickets.
Prize caps are different from ticket caps
A ticket cap is the maximum number of entries allowed in a competition. A prize cap is the maximum number of instant awards in a particular row. Neither one, on its own, establishes that each block of tickets must contain a winner. Published odds describe the selection process; a cap limits what can be awarded.
Hoardsy’s capped weighted model applies the published starting ranges and then handles exhausted tiers under the stated rule. If the selected tier has reached its cap, the result moves to the next lower tier with an award available. If none remains, the result is no prize. This can change the actual distribution from the starting table.
That is why the table labels its chance as a starting chance and shows remaining counts separately when available. Do not read an exhausted top-prize row as if that prize were still available. Equally, do not assume that its chance is simply deleted while all lower rows stay unchanged. Read the competition’s current table and proof information.
Original inventory tables need a different calculation
Some published competition records use an original inventory of prizes instead of a weighted table. For those records, divide the count in the prize row by the original ticket capacity to describe the complete starting pool. That is an original-pool chance, not a calculation of what remains after allocations.
A remaining-inventory probability needs reliable remaining inventory and entry information. Do not subtract an unsourced winner count from an old table and present the result as current. If a necessary figure is not published or cannot be verified, the honest answer is that the current probability cannot be calculated from the information available.
The table labels these models separately so their numbers are not blended. A weight, an original count and a current remaining count can all be whole numbers, but they have different meanings. Check the column heading before using one in a calculation.
What does “1 in 400” mean over several tickets?
It means a single ticket has that stated probability under the relevant conditions. It does not mean the four hundredth ticket must win, that every group of four hundred contains a prize or that the next entry becomes certain after three hundred and ninety-nine no-prize results.
If repeated tickets had independent outcomes with an unchanged probability p, the mathematical chance of at least one success across n tickets would be 1 − (1 − p) to the power n. That formula is conditional: a capped table whose effective distribution changes cannot automatically be treated as the same unchanged process throughout.
Buying additional tickets increases the amount paid. It does not provide a guarantee of a particular return. A calculation about a group of entries should show its assumptions, include the total cost and avoid describing a result as inevitable. A past losing sequence is not a debt owed by the next ticket.
Expected value is an average, not a promise
For a fixed prize distribution, the expected cash amount is the sum of each cash prize multiplied by its probability. Divide that average by the ticket price if you want a comparable share of entry cost returned as cash under that distribution. This is an arithmetic expectation across a model, not the amount a person is promised.
Separate site credit, item valuations and later draws. An item’s stated value is not necessarily the cash you could receive for it, and an available cash alternative has its own terms. A growing end draw also needs its current guaranteed value and relevant entry total, rather than a maximum headline assumed to apply immediately.
Starting chances and prize caps can make a simple long-run calculation incomplete. State which table and point in time you used. The competition payback calculator explains another comparison based on total listed prizes and total possible entry revenue; that measure should not be confused with a personal win probability.
Why peg position and timing do not change the chances
Your entry is fixed first, a designated future public drand number is published afterwards, and the outcome is recorded before the reveal begins. The ball is then animated to the recorded result. Starting the animation at a different moment does not obtain a new public number for that ticket.
A physical experiment with a perfectly symmetrical peg board could be modelled as a series of left and right movements. Hoardsy’s reveal is not using your device’s physical bounces to allocate prizes. Applying that physical model here would calculate the wrong process. The prize table and the committed result selection are the relevant evidence.
Skipping or replaying a reveal also leaves the saved result unchanged. There is no pattern of clicks that improves it. For the practical controls and recovery steps, read how Plinko works.
How to assess a claim that Plinko is rigged
Ask what process was promised and whether a result can be checked against it. On Hoardsy, the ticket’s Verify link repeats the calculation and checks the public randomness proof. Read the actual proof and its limits. A long run without a large prize is not, by itself, proof of an incorrect process when that prize has a very small chance.
Verification does not establish payment arrival, inclusion of every postal application or suitability for an individual player. The fairness explanation states those limits. Keep the relevant ticket and order reference if you need support to investigate a mismatch.
Compare competitions with the same question
When comparing tables, choose one question and hold it constant: chance of any withdrawable cash, chance of a named prize, entry cost or evidence about the result process. Comparing one site’s any-prize rate with another’s top-prize chance tells you little. Different prize types also need clear labels.
The competition sites with published chances comparison explains its basis, while the full competition-site ranking includes broader terms and evidence. Hoardsy publishes both pages and is not ranked; its evidence is shown separately against the same checks. Use them alongside the current operator rules, not instead of those rules.
18+ only, Great Britain: England, Scotland and Wales. Free postal entry is available under the published competition rules, with the same chance for valid paid and postal entries. Postage is paid by the entrant. Check the current entry window and address before posting.
Frequently asked questions
How are Plinko chances calculated?
For a weighted table, divide the prize row’s weight by its denominator. For an original inventory table, divide the row count by the original ticket capacity. Use the model and table for the actual competition.
Does any prize mean a profit?
No. Any-prize figures can include cash awards below the ticket price and separately labelled site credit. Finishing ahead after entry costs is a different measure.
Does a prize cap mean that many prizes will be won?
No. A cap is a maximum number of instant awards in a tier. Read any separate guarantee and closing-draw rule; a cap alone is not a promise that the full count will be awarded.
What happens when a weighted prize tier is exhausted?
Under Hoardsy’s published capped model, a result assigned to that tier moves to the next lower available tier, or to no prize if none remains. This is why starting chances and current remaining counts must be read together.
Do the pegs determine the chance of a prize?
No. The published competition table and result-selection process determine the outcome before the reveal. The peg-board animation presents the saved result.
Can a run of no-prize tickets make a prize due?
No. A published chance is not a schedule of guaranteed winners. Previous results do not create an obligation for the next ticket to win.
Choose your next step
See instant win games in the UK, browse instant win competitions, or compare the best competition sites by their published chances and terms. For a different reveal, see Plinko, Skyfall and Spotlight.
Last checked 17 October 2026.
Hoardsy
See the competitions
Choose a draw or an instant game. Every prize and its chance is on the page before you enter.
18+, Great Britain only. Free postal entry on every competition.
